Adapting from the Futures Toolkitof the Government Office for Science, the research team identified three horizons for Youth Work: Horizon 1 (H1), Horizon 2 (H2) and Horizon 3 (H3). The current situation and near future within the youth work field are referred to as Horizon 1 (H1). H1 represents the elements that are strategically crucial now, in the present. These are issues that can be easily identified and understood, ones that youth work stakeholders and organisations are already addressing. So, in essence, H1 focuses on current strategies and immediate challenges that are presently grappled with in youth work.
However, as time progresses, the importance of H1 issues will gradually wane. They might either be incorporated into broader strategies or be overshadowed by other trends and events. These are the issues that will constitute Horizon 2 (H2), in the medium-term future. While it might not be possible to fully comprehend the exact nature of H2 at this stage, some key trends can be identified as well as the driving factors that will shape it. The responsibility of youth work practitioners, researchers and policymakers is to monitor these factors closely, understand the potential outcomes and adapt their strategies in anticipation of these future needs. Ideally, this should be a cooperative process that includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders.
As we move further into the future, H2 will gradually evolve into Horizon 3 (H3), where new challenges and strategic issues will arise. Grasping the specifics of H3 is challenging due to the distance from the present – we are by now well into the future – making the change drivers that will shape H3 harder to pinpoint. However, the aim of this horizon for youth work practitioners and policymakers is to identify and track these change drivers, allowing them to develop strategic foresight about the potential challenges and choices they might face in the long-term future, while also starting to consider what kind of strategies might be needed to ensure continued success in youth work.