The ‘Futures of Youth Work’ project employed foresight methods originating from the field of future studies. In most general terms, futures studies ‘collect and analyse signals and trends from the past and the present, to create scenarios about probable, possible or desirable Futures’.
Although the discipline was developed in the 20th century, it is useful to remember that engaging with the future and the search for predictive patterns may be as old as humanity itself. In recent years, foresight methods have evolved into a well-established field with strong academic foundations and diverse approaches employed by practitioners in policy-making and decision-making processes. Various methods exist, each tailored to different timeframes and offering varying levels of depth in analysis to address specific organisations’ needs.
On the one hand, while traditional foresight heavily relied on expert opinions, there has been a notable shift towards participatory approaches that recognise the inherent unpredictability of the future but emphasise the power of imagination, shaping and inclusive engagement to create desirable futures. These approaches often employ creative storytelling and interactive methods to engage with possible futures.
On the other hand, strategic foresight is a systematic approach to dealing with uncertainty, defined as the capacity to develop and sustain a range of high-quality forward views and apply emerging insights in practical ways within organisations. This includes detecting adverse conditions, guiding policy, shaping strategy and exploring new markets, products and services
Diving into the depths of futures-related studies, this project navigates through waves of signals and trends to sketch out potential futures. Historically, predicting the future has been an age-old fascination, involving methods as varied as oracles and stargazing – ancient practices that included tossing bones or scrutinising tea leaves for hints of what is to come. Today, the Oracle of Delphi has been replaced by the Delphi method, but the fundamental quest to glimpse into the future remains unchanged.
The shift from solitary predictions to more participatory methods marks a significant evolution. These contemporary approaches are not just about democratising the outlook on the future, rather they enrich and diversify the perspectives, making the process more engaging. By employing creative storytelling and interactive engagements, the field – in the case of this research, the field of youth work – does not merely passively anticipate the future, rather it actively shapes it, creating possible tomorrows with the broad paintbrushes of the collective imagination.
Introducing horizon scanning can be seen as embarking on a grand exploration across time. This method acts like setting sail across a vast ocean, with a crew of futurists scanning the horizons for signs of emerging trends and potential disruptions. This approach offers a structured yet imaginative exploration of what the future might hold, patiently waiting to enlighten and guide strategic pathways.
Horizon scanning is usually the first step of any foresight project. The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre defines it as a structured evidence-gathering process, which ‘engages participants by asking them to consider broad sources, typically outside the scope of their expertise’, encouraging ‘looking ahead, beyond usual timescales and looking across, beyond usual sources’. Horizon scanning is about exploring what the futures might look like, to better embrace and understand uncertainties. This is partially about imagining, it is not about guessing or making predictions; instead, it is about systematically investigating emerging evidence about future trends. The methodologies and tools of futures and foresight are meant to help youth work practice and other stakeholders identify these change drivers understand the various ways they might combine to shape the future landscapes of youth work and contemplate what the most effective strategic response might be.