To initiate reflection and conversations about how the current trends might be shaping the future of youth work, using the three temporal perspectives.
About the tool
The Three Horizons framework has become very popular in the field of future-related research and future foresight. It has been used as one of the key tools in the “Futures of Youth Work” research. The Three Horizons provide three different ‘timed’ perspectives on the future:
Horizon 1 (H1), also called “Business as usual”. It includes the current dominant perspective and the well-established ways of doing things, even in a failing system. It might influence the short-term future, but it can also become outdated and eventually obsolete if there is no innovation and change.
Horizon 2 (H2), also called “Disruptive innovation”, represents the currently well-known ways of doing things and innovative trends that are already disrupting the status quo. In the medium term, it can become even more strongly present. However, there is a point in time when those can faze out together with the H1 or enhance further future developments through H3.
Horizon 3 (H3), also known as “Emerging future”, represents not-so-strong or rather silent signals and societal trends that have the potential to grow exponentially and critically affect the long-term future of the field, such as youth work.
This Tool invites participants to become “Signal Spotters” for a period of time and to record all relevant signals from their environment, both loud and silent ones, and report them back to the group. For more information about a Signal Spotter mindset, see the report from the Futures of Youth Work research.
Process
This tool is used in a sequence that includes an onboarding session, pre-work as signal spotters and processing the outcomes in the workshop setting.
- During the Onboarding session, which can be done online, explain the purpose of the horizon scanning exercise to the group members (e.g. to explore what social factors and trends can influence the way we will do youth work in the future)
- Then, introduce the concept of being a signal spotter. Ask the group members that for an agreed period (e.g. 2-3 weeks), they remain open and aware and record all the societal trends and events that can potentially influence the future of youth work. That information can potentially come from anywhere: the media, a conversation with friends, a university lecture, events around you, etc. Literally from anywhere around you. No matter how significant these signals might sound, make sure that they are recorded and shared with the rest of the signal spotters. For a joint collection space, you may use collaborative digital tools, like Padlet, Discord or similar. (For more information about the mindset needed, see the text “About the Signal Spotter mindset” in the annexe).
- The Onboarding session is followed by a period of actual signal spotting and submitting the signals in the agreed digital space.
- Before the workshop, print each submitted signal on a separate piece of paper.
- During the workshop, recreate a large model of the three horizons on the floor. (see the picture below) and introduce the 3 horizons framework.
- Then ask the participants to reflect on their submitted signals and sort them out according to the horizon they represent. You may use colour-coded post-its or cards to make them better visible on the graph, e.g. red cards for H1, blue cards for H2 and green cards for H3.
Source: 3H Framework by Future Stewards and presentation used in the Futures of Youth Work workshop
Debriefing with the group
- How was the process of sorting out the signals?
- What was easier, and what was more difficult?
- What were the surprising discoveries on the way?
- Zoom out and see the graph as a whole. What is the story that this picture wants to tell us about the future?
- What are the driving forces in the short-term and in the medium-term that will affect the way we do youth work?
- What are the driving forces that might affect the youth work in a long-term perspective?
- What might remain as the core of youth work and what might be different from what we know it today?
- What does it mean for us as youth workers in the present time? How can we get better prepared for what is coming?
This exercise could be followed up with a focus on our future-readiness as youth workers or as team members in the organisation. Other possible tools to be used for that purpose are “Fields of Change” or “Four Quadrants of Future Readiness”.
